Things Will Not Go As Planned

A fact of endurance racing: things will not always go as planned. As an optimistic person, I find it hard to promote the idea that “Things Will Go Wrong”. But as an endurance racer and coach, I have seen this play out time and time again- see my personal examples below. I can recount numerous times where things went wrong for both apparent bad luck and my own bad decisions. In both circumstances, I had to make race-changing decisions in the middle of a race. Sometimes I made decisions that turned out for the best, and sometimes my decisions led to me being in the med tent. As I competed in more races, more things did not go as planned, which led to more practice with making race-changing decisions in the middle of the race.

Applying the Benjamin Franklin quote, “Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other”, I have incorporated two methods that have helped me in these imminent situations:

1. A decision making framework: Logistics-Strategies-Tactics
2. Pre-Mortems

Logistics-Strategy-Tactics

The fact is things will not always go as you planned. So when it does go awry, what can you do to minimize the effect on the end desired Outcome? You need ask yourself the following question:

Given the non-negotiables of the situation, what small steps under your control can be done to accomplish the desired end Outcome?

Or Simply:

Given the Logistics, what Tactics can be done to accomplish the ultimate Strategy?

Logistics: The non-negotiable of the situation or environment. The things you cannot control or change.

Strategy: Given the Logistics, the overall end goal or vision.

Tactics: The required interconnected small steps that must be accomplished to achieve the Strategy, given the Logistics.

I first heard this decision-making framework from Coach John Coffman of New Albany Aquatics Club.

The more clarity you have with the above mentioned variables, the more likely you are to accomplish the ultimate Strategy. Looking at this decision-making framework through the lens of E+R=O. (Event + Response = Outcome):

An Event happens in our life and our Response to it determines the Outcome. We have no control over the Event (Logistics) but what we do control is our Response (Tactics) which then influences the Outcome (Strategy). This equation continually builds on itself so that it plays out in both the microscopic and macroscopic view of our lives to ultimately determine our success and happiness. The bigger the desired Outcome (Strategy), the more difficult and longer it will take to give the required Response (Tactics).

Sometimes the situation dictates the Response and Outcomes need to be adjusted. Most of the time the desired Outcome dictates the Response and the situation is just the playing field.

Mentally running through the options of actions you can take and their consequences is imperative. As with anything the more you practice this before the event, the better you will be at when it really matters.

Pre-Mortems

Pre-Mortems were designed by psychologist Gary Klein. Think of a pre-mortem as negative visualization where you envision what could go wrong in advance. A lot of the race is ruled by external factors. Some, not all, of those external factors can be prevented from failing if you consider them ahead of time. Rather than crossing your fingers and hoping everything goes as planned, you need to make sure that you consider all the pieces of the puzzle that is the race and have backup plans when appropriate.

As The Daily Stoic article says, “If it comes as a constant surprise each and every time something unexpected occurs, you’re not only going to be miserable whenever you attempt something big, you’re going to have a much harder time accepting it and moving on to attempts two, three, and four. The only guarantee, ever, is that things could go wrong. The only thing we can use to mitigate this is anticipation. With anticipation, we have time to raise defenses, or even avoid them entirely. We’re ready to be driven off course because we’ve plotted a way back. We can resist going to pieces if things didn’t go as planned. With anticipation, we can endure.

We are prepared for failure and ready for success.”

I strongly believe in the quote- Hungry Dogs Hunt the Best. When things go wrong, reflection and analysis are a non-negotiable (Post-Mortem). This reflection and analysis should make you even hungrier as an athlete and not mentally beat up- keeping a positive eye on the future and not a mental bad outlook on the past and what went wrong. Your self talk needs to be centered around the fact that now you know what not to do! The next race is going to be so much better because you know that definitely won’t happen again. And if it does- you know how to better Respond.

Stay Hungry!

Examples of times when things did not go as planned during races:

• 2009 US AG Nationals- Slipped on the timing mat coming out of the water running up to T1 and cut open my knee.
• 2014 ITU AG World Championships- Front tire skewer came loose. I noticed this going down a hill at 40+ mph.
• 2015 IM Louisville- Kicked in the face and goggles broke within the first half mile
• 2010 Memphis in May- Blacked out during the run and woke up in the med tent in an ice bath with an internal body temp of 107 degrees.
• 2010 College Nationals- Swim shortened, Flat Tire, Water was contaminated with farm run off.
• 2016 Austin 70.3- Fog cancelled the swim and push Start time to 2+ hours later, 15 degrees warmer than average with 100% Humidity
• General Bike Mechanicals: Flat Tires, Dropped Chains, Gearing Issues